March 3, 2014

Mobilizing for World War III

Commentary of 3 March 2014

"The jealous and intolerant eye of the Kremlin can distinguish, in the end, only vassals and enemies, and the neighbors of Russia, if they do not wish to be one, must reconcile themselves to being the other."
                                     – George F. Kennan

I began this series of commentaries on 20 January with the title “Predicting World War III.” In that first piece, I related how a group of well-known Russian astrologers, shamans and parapsychologists had predicted the beginning of World War III for March 2014. And here we are, at the outset of a serious crisis that might easily escalate to world war. A reader of this blog recently noted, “Either this thing has gotten away from Moscow, or Moscow has much bigger plans in store dead ahead."

Yes, things have gotten away from Russia, and bigger plans are in store. This is obvious from the Russian military invasion of Crimea. At this point, why should the Kremlin worry about an open display of violence against innocent people? The military balance has already shifted in Russia’s favor, with China preparing for war against Japan in the Far East. In truth our military readiness is not what it should be. (See End of American Military Dominance: Hagel announces steep U.S. defense cuts in aircraft, ships, troops, weapons.) 

America has been fighting a war against terrorism for the last twelve years. We have been diverted and misdirected. Our military policy has shifted away from preparing against a major adversary and we are not ready. Furthermore, which European country is prepared to fight Russia? Only Ukraine is preparing to fight, and Ukraine is hopelessly outgunned.

The famous KGB defector, Anatoliy Golitsyn, warned of Moscow’s long range strategy in 1984 with the following paragraph: “The dialectic of this [Kremlin] offensive consists of a calculated shift from the old, discredited Soviet practice to a new, ‘liberalized’ model, with a social democratic façade, to realize the communist planners’ strategy for establishing a United Europe. At the beginning they introduced a variation of the 1968 Czechoslovakian ‘democratization.’ At a later phase they will shift to a variation of the Czechoslovakian takeover of 1948.” [p. 349, New Lies for Old

It appears we are nearing the later phase. The strategists in Moscow know that the revolt in Ukraine must be put down, despite what the world thinks. They believe the balance of power has shifted, and they can act with impunity. Of course, they are afraid that a “great unraveling” of their strategy might occur if they do not press hard against Kiev. Aside from Russian propaganda, those who say the West is behind the Ukrainian freedom movement do not know the West, and they do not know Ukraine. Such a misunderstanding, worst of all, belittles the courage and political work of Ukrainian patriots. The best of them understand that there cannot be full freedom in Ukraine without freedom in Russia

So the real fight is political. The real fight is for the heart of Russia. The criminals who rule Russia have survived by killing and murdering. They will lose power only when the Russian people fully awaken. Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn once said the path of murder is the path of the lie. And now we see the murderers at work, and we are going to be treated to a parade of lies. Watch and see if the Western media begins to identify the Ukrainian patriotic cause with anti-Semitism. Such is the rhetoric of a country that is preparing to smash Ukraine.

And yes, the danger of war is growing. According to Ukrainian officials, Russian troops have occupied Crimea. The Fox News headline reads: Ukraine accuses Russia of ‘military invasion’ as gunmen seize airports. Although Russian officials deny or make no comment when asked about this invasion, Ukrainian Interior Minister Arsen Avakov has publicly stated, “I can only describe this as a military invasion and occupation.” According to CNN, Ukraine mobilizes troops after Russia’s ‘declaration of war’ – with the following text: “Kiev mobilized troops and called up military reservists in a rapidly escalating crisis that has raised fears of a conflict.” 

Meanwhile, Russian 20th and 48th armies are making preparations to invade Eastern Ukraine. At the same time, Secretary of State John Kerry is headed to Kiev, and claims that several foreign powers are considering economic sanctions against Russia. “All of them,” said Kerry, “every single one of them are prepared to go to the hilt in order to isolate Russia with respect to this invasion. They’re prepared to put sanctions in place, they’re prepared to isolate Russia economically.” 

Let’s not be too hasty, however. One must consider the many cards Russia has yet to play: U.S. troops depend on Russia for their supply line in Afghanistan. Germany depends on Russian natural gas for winter heating. Sanctions may not be practical. And then, there is the China Front. In January the Russian Deputy Defense Minister Pavel Popov warned that a US-China-Japan Pacific War was “just weeks away.”
One cannot rule out a massive and coordinated offensive by Russia and China, or an escalation of grey terror with a nuclear attack on New York. Any number of moves may be indicated. It is hard to say exactly how this will be played. 

I will end with a quote from KGB Major Golitsyn: “Before long, the communist strategists might be persuaded that the balance [of power] had swung irreversibly in their favor. In that event they might well decide on a Sino-Soviet ‘reconciliation.’ The scissors strategy would give way to the strategy of ‘one clenched fist.’ At that point the shift in the political and military balance would be plain for all to see.” [p. 346]

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