January 27, 2013

To take the Europe over


To take the Europe over(photo )
Eastern Europe became now a scene of at least three global parties competition to dominate, and for all of the three for very good reasons. For Germany and Russia it is to continue developing reciprocal strategic partnership leading to strengthen both sides, and to establish ‘new European deal’ abolishing last ‘Yalta conference establishments in  action’, i.e.: US presence in Europe, and its - to the very recent - dominating military position. However, it looks as if the future allies’ cooperation is not going that smooth, as only two-three years ago one could anticipate. Germans seem to be surprised by increasing influence of the Russian policy in the countries of the former Soviet block, including countries the Germans believe should be in their zone of economical interests, as Poland or Baltic Countries.

That resulted in a counteraction, and unexpected declarations of Polish, as well as Lithuanian and Latvian authorities, to join the eurozone as soon as it is possible, despite it would be devastating to the internal economy or not. On the other hand, the Ukrainians play the US card, signing contracts on excavations of the shale gas on their territory by the US companies. It has already triggered hostile reaction from the Russian side, and a threat of financial blackmailing.
Poland is ruled by two political centres, one located in the government, following to the last detail German policy in EU, and another, located in the presidential Palace, with its Strategic Bureau Centre declaring in its documents that Russia is to be a military warrant of Polish security; what seems to be strange considering Poland being a member of the NATO pact.

The US government locates his sympathies at the Polish opposition side, thus noticeable honours and presence of the US Ambassador to Poland at the funeral ceremony of the late mother of Jaroslaw Kaczynski, the opposition leader. It is likely the Russians will be trying to eliminate US allies in Poland as they succeeded in Georgia. For the Russians, US business engaged in excavating Polish shale gas resources would have dramatic impact on their economy and the key player position on gas supplies’ European market. It is in fact to be or not to be for the Russian present rulers, unable to modernize Russia, and dependable entirely on natural resources sale.

For Berlin, the best way to prevent Poland establishing close relations with the US, is to try to ban shale gas excavations in Europe, using as a pretext ecology and nature protection issues. Moscow will be trying to take the Polish shale gas market over, before the Americans. It is worth to recall that recently died General Petelicki was commonly perceived as having ‘pro-American’ sympathies, criticised Donald Tusk government for its actions in Smolensk case, and died leaving no note just hours after Exxonmobile moved its business from Poland to Siberia (was it one in exchange for another?).

I have no doubt that the Smolensk’s case will be used by the Russians to play the Polish card within the upcoming months, to compromise pro-German Donald Tusk circle, weaken the opposition, and strengthen president the Bronislaw Komorowski circle – who is already building up his position by proposing to join his political backbenches to a few of today’s outsiders, representing the entire political spectrum. However, allowing the Russians to play ‘Smolensk’s card might have had hardly imaginable consequences, therefore most of the politicians of the ruling circle would rather prefer to have the wreckage back to Poland now, and not be exposed to any future surprises, as it was with finding explosives in the wreckage’s debris by the police explosives’ experts.