October 25, 2012

Possible new Deal


Possible new Deal(photo warsaw beeper)
It is obvious for everyone really interested in Poland’s politics, that the Third Republic has reached its limits. It can not go any further. The situation is to some extent similar to that of 1989. One of the possible solutions is a kind of new Round Table talks .

Some people may remember that in the nineties the Gazeta Wyborcza daily, an ultra-fanatic pro-Third Republic newspaper, was the hegemon of the media market. It dictated not only fashions and styles, but also current politics. A single note in the last page could have lead to a dismissal of minister or head of important office. Its position deteriorated in the next decade, but it still retained some power. Now it is only a shadow of its former shape, a tragic-comic specter that haunts some parts of Poland. It is still poisonous and dangerous, but its range of fire is limited. Instead of ministers nowadays it annoys random and not so important people. Let us just give one example – on Monday November 22nd it nabbed one teacher from a remote village who said during the lesson that divorce is harmful for children (according to Gazeta Wyborcza divorce is of course a positive fact, totally harmless). It made a big scandal of this and tried to get the teacher persecuted for such statement.

Another example: the recent “second expose” by Prime Minister Donald Tusk showed clearly that he is totally exhausted and out of ideas. The only thing that he did after the expose was a promise to refund in vitro fertilizing. In vitro as a final outcome of the Third Republic – great! It clearly shows how impotent the pseudo-elites and their leaders are.

That is why the pseudo-elite needs a new deal and partial cooptation of selected members of the real elite, that could give it the necessary vigor and vital power. The aim is of course the prolonging of the dolce vita at a minimum cost. That is why they would probably decide to repeat the model of round table, that was used in 1989 and preserved the communist pseudo-elite for almost a quarter of a century. As it was in 1989, also this time a part of the current political practice will be condemned, like “populism” or other vague thing.

It will not happen in the upcoming months, but in one year – why not? Tusk, who is still strong enough to continue as prime minister, knows that he could be the main victim of this new deal and he is the main obstacle for this arrangement. But sooner or later he will be overthrown and replaced by a new figure – this will be a time for a new deal. We could expect that the new masque of the pseudo-elite will be more patriotic, more conservative and more Catholic than the current disguise. It will be of course pro-Russian and anti-American, as is the post-communist pseudo-elite. The members of the real elite, forming a part of this deal, will have to swallow this bitter pill, but… so what?

While it would be rather easy to find members of the real elite interested in such a deal, we could expect it to happen. However, there are two possible obstacles to this plan: the change of global balance of power and the social energy generated in Poland by the economic and moral crisis. It is possible that people would just not buy it.